Super Bowl 2026 survivor: Which team will hoist the Lombardi Trophy based on five title trends?

Which team will win the most wide-open Super Bowl race ever?

The NFL script writers have cooked up one of their best seasons ever in 2025. Any of the 14 playoff teams can win the Super Bowl this year. Just kidding, sorry Panthers. Almost any team can hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

There's no Patrick Mahomes to go through. The quarterbacks on the top seeds aren't trustworthy. The Eagles offense is in disarray. You could argue the most dangerous teams didn't even win their divisions. Most of the top teams from last year aren't even in the tournament and there's been a historic amount of turnarounds in 2025 leaving us all skeptical of who is actually good.

Every team has a red flag. The Broncos can't pass. The Bills can't defend the run. The Texans and Chargers can't protect their quarterbacks. The Seahawks can't take care of the ball and the 49ers can't rush the passer. The list goes on and on. But which red flags will prove to be fatal flaws?

I used five trends that are good indicators of championship-caliber teams to narrow the field of 14 to just one for Super Bowl LX. 

Must be elite on one side of the ball 

The last 12 (and 56 of 59) Super Bowl champions were top seven in scoring offense OR scoring defense (or both)

Eliminates six teams: Bears, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Chargers, Panthers

Let's get rid of the pretenders, first. You have to be elite at something to win a Super Bowl. The 1999 Rams won with a historic offense. The 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers and 2015 Broncos won with historic defenses. You can be average at best on one side of the ball and win a title, as long as you're great at something.

Six playoffs teams can't say that about their offense or defense. The Bears are too reliant on takeaways and comebacks, two stats that point to regression. Their defense is bad (as we saw in Week 17 in San Francisco) and it will ultimately be their downfall. The offense isn't elite, either.

As we saw in the fourth quarter on Sunday night, the Steelers' secondary is awful. Plus, their offense has been inconsistent all year.

The Packers' defense has been shredded during the four-game losing streak since Micah Parsons went down. It's hard to imagine them overcoming his loss to make a run.

Speaking of injuries, the 49ers have one of the league's worst defenses without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. They have the fewest sacks per game (1.2) by a playoff team in NFL history. The offense has been hot lately, but it's still not the explosive unit of year's past, especially on the ground.

The Chargers weren't particularly great on either side of the ball and they allowed a franchise-record 60 sacks this year.

The Panthers, well, were outscored by 69 points this year, the worst by a division champ since Tebow's Broncos in 2011.

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Must make critical stops

None of the last 18 Super Bowl champions were bottom 10 in the NFL in third-down conversion rate allowed

Eliminates one team: Bills

This is the best opportunity for Josh Allen and the Bills to win a Super Bowl but they are staring at so many red flags. The run defense. The lack of a closer at edge rusher. No No. 1 option for Allen. 

The one that might ultimately doom them is the lack of an edge rusher. It doesn't look like they have the defense to get off the field so Allen can do his thing. They rank ninth-worst in third-down conversion percentage allowed this year (41.4%), which would be the worst by a Super Bowl champion since the 2006 Colts. 

Trenches

21 of the last 23 Super Bowl champions had a positive sack differential

Eliminates two teams: Patriots, Jaguars

We saw just how critical the trenches were last Super Bowl when the Eagles' front four destroyed the Chiefs. That's why I'm eliminating the Patriots. They are bottom 10 in sack rate and pressure rate allowed this year. Drake Maye has been great vs. pressure and outside the pocket, but don't be shocked if this is New England's undoing, especially if they run into the Broncos' or Texans' pass rush. The Jaguars' pass rush has been a no-show outside of Josh Hines-Allen and Jacksonville ranks in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate on both sides of the ball.

Clutch kicks

Only one of the last 25 Super Bowl champions ranked bottom five in the NFL in field goal percentage (2022 Chiefs)

Eliminates two teams: Eagles, Rams

Sometimes the last game of the season comes down to one kick. Ask Adam Vinatieri or Scott Norwood. Harrison Butker hit a 57-yarder in Super Bowl LVIII in a game the Chiefs eventually won in overtime vs. the 49ers. 

Since 2000, there's been 100 potential game-tying or go-ahead field goal attempts in the fourth quarter or overtime of playoff games. That's four super critical kicks per year. If it comes off the wrong leg, you might just be looking at a double doink and a quick exit. 

The Eagles and Rams haven't been able to find their footing in the kicking game this season. Philadelphia's offense will probably be its downfall, but if not, there's kicking. The Rams are 4-5 in one-score games this year and have arguably the worst special teams in football. They fired their special teams coordinator after Week 16 for a reason. They've been torn up in the return game and their kickers have let them down, like when they had two field goals blocked in the fourth quarter vs. the Eagles this year. Or, when Harrison Mevis missed a potential game-winning field goal late in the fourth quarter in Seattle three weeks ago. 

Turnover battle

Only two of the past 41 Super Bowl champions ranked bottom five in the NFL in either giveaways or takeaways (2015 Broncos, 2023 Chiefs)

Eliminates two teams: Broncos, Seahawks

One turnover can flip a game and these teams have not been good in this department. The Broncos surprisingly rank bottom five in takeaways this season (14) despite a historic pass rush. The Seahawks are tied for second-most giveaways in the NFL (28) and Sam Darnold has the most of any player. Seattle proved it could win with its run game and suffocating defense vs. the 49ers last week, but that formula might not work all postseason. Nobody will be surprised if Darnold costs them with a disastrous turnover.

2026 Super Bowl champion: Houston Texans

That leaves us with a Super Bowl champion (at least in terms of those championship indicators). The Houston Texans. They aren't without red flags, either. They have one of the worst red zone offenses in the league thanks to a nonexistent run game and a horrible offensive line. However, CJ Stroud is starting to heat up with Jayden Higgins emerging as a second option alongside Nico Collins. This offense could do just enough to support an incredible defense that oozes talent and playmaking at every level.